Poly-silicon Cost Model
A large semiconductor and solar wafer manufacturer was looking to renew long-term contracts with its supply base. As such, they requested to not only know the current costs but to have an 8 year forecast on what costs could be. The format requested was in a model that could be adjusted over time.
A detailed model containing 93 independent variables was created to simulate costs of the top 2 producers of polysilicon. The level of detail included outputs of each factory, including when upgrades and expansions took place.
The output even allowed the user to adjust utilization rates which would affect variable costs and make priorities as to what factory would be prioritized for output. The whole system was benchmarked against past performances of these manufacturers to ensure accuracy.